Food for Thought

So I have come up with an idea for tonight's game. The Patriots have jumped out to some early leads this year (the Colts, the Broncos, the Jets, I think you know what I'm going to say next) and they have blown every one of these first half leads. The Saints on the other hand, have been notorious for their slow starts this year, being tied or losing at half on several occasions this season. However, they have had some very impressive second half performances, including putting up 22 in the fourth quarter against Miami. So, if New England jumps out to an early first-half lead, I will bet the Saints for the same amount for the second half, which actually serves two purposes. Since it is the largest wager of the season, I am safeguarding my bet ensuring I don't lose money. On the other hand, if I do win, I will win 2x the largest wager of the season. If the Pats are winning at half, I stand to lose my best or win my bet. If the Pats are winning and I do hedge, I stand to lose nothing or win 2x my bet. Just an idea to add some security and potentially win double our bet if we are fortunate enough for the Pats to get off to a good start.

Play of the Year

First off let me say that I don't do this often, and I really don't like to. My advice to gamblers is generally to bet the same amount on each game, and let your winning percentage take care of making you money. To this point in the season, I have not released one Play of the Week or Play of the Month. I will admit in general I just don't believe in it. However, every now and then a play comes along that just jumps off the board at me, and I will drop the hammer. Most of the time these games play out as I see them. Tonight is one of those games. At this point we all know about the Saints offense. They are fun to watch and Drew Brees is a hell of player. But I certainly don't see the Saints putting up 40 tonight. I'm sure Billy B has spent many an hour scheming exactly how to stop the Saints offense and while stopping it completely is nearly impossible, I have to imagine he has a plan to slow it down. On the other hand, I really cannot see the Saints D getting it done tonight. Sure they handled the Bucs (and their rookie QB) last week but they were outgained by the St. Louis Rams the week before!!!! Yes, you read that right, the St. Louis Rams outgained the prolific and highly touted New Orleans Saints offense. New Orleans is a tough place to play but home field advantage will not be enough for the Saints tonight. Do with it what you like, but this is my largest wager of the season to this point.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +1.5 PLAY OF THE YEAR


Posted Record: 104-70-5

Well that is a perfectly fitting way to end the weekend. Vince Young not only converts on 4th and 4 from his own 7, but goes all the way down the field and scores on a ten yard pass on the last play of the game. 2-2 on the day and 6-7 on the weekend. Very disappointing weekend. But you can't go a season of betting on sports without a few bumps on the road. Overall still a very positive year. Really like New England tomorrow so hopefully we can jump back on the winning train. Before long it will be my favorite time of the year which is College Bowl season so lets grind out a few positive weeks and head into the Bowls with lots of money in our accounts to bet.

Posted Record: 104-70-5

Update and Monday Play

Folks it has been a tough couple of days. As of now we are 2-1 today pending the Arizona game. Hopefully they can pull off the win for a 3-1 Sunday. I am posting this now because I feel very strongly about it. I am a believer in betting the same amount (or at least very close) every game so that a good winning percentage will yield a nice profit. However I will say I am going large on this one.

New England Patriots +1.5 (I don't think the spread matter as I really expect NE to win the game)

Will be back to update the record.

Sunday Football

Very disappointing day going 4-5 yesterday. Four games for today:

Dolphins -3
Seattle -4
Jets -3
Arizona +2


Posted Record: 102-68-5

Update

Really tough start to the day going 1-4 so far, losing ECU by .5 and getting a late unexpected TD to send the Clemson/SC game over. But that's why they call it gambling. Hopefully Florida takes their foot off the gas (though we are talking about Urban Meyer here) and continues to shut down FSU. UTEP is in decent shape (but lets not count our chickens) so with any luck we'll be at 3-4 going into the night games. A little good fortune on Stanford and Baylor and we have a disappointing, but still profitable day. My fingers are crossed but I am hopeful. Best of luck everyone.

Saturday's Card

Nice day yesterday. Unusually big card tomorrow so we'll see how it goes. I am on:

Syracuse/ UConn Under 47
South Carolina/Clemson Under 44
NC State +5.5
Miss/Miss State Under 47.5
UTEP Pick
FSU/Florida Under 56
Baylor +20.5
East Carolina -5.5
Stanford -10

Posted Record: 98-63-5

Record Update

So I realized I forgot to add my two wins on Turkey Day to my record. Then today I went 3-1-1 so a nice boost to the overall in the last couple days.


Posted Record: 98-63-5 (Just a shade under 61% on the year which is good for a nice healthy profit)

Friday Football

Nice day today hitting both of our picks. I will admit my injury research was not thorough enough as Stafford and Johnson both played (though they were both noticeably banged up), and Kyle Orton played for Denver, which I did not think he would. Either way, we cashed both tickets and we will take that any day. I love the fact that we have a nice healthy card for tomorrow. My picks are:

West Virginia Pick
Louisville +3
Kent +3
Ohio +2.5
Auburn +9.5

Posted Record: 93-62-4

While Your At It...

Lock in Stanford -10 before the line goes any higher. I already placed this bet a few days ago. Stanford puts the hurt on the Irish and Charlie Weiss' coaching career at ND is OVER.

Turkey Day Football

First of all Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I'll be on two games today. First I really don't see how the Lions are going to do anything without their two studs Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Last year the Tennessee Titans stomped the Lions on Turkey Day and while the Packers win might not be quite so convincing today I think they will comfortably cover the number. No play on the mid-day game as my lean would be towards Oakland but it's really hard to tell which Oakland team you're going to get on any given day, and Vegas made the number 14 after they beat Cincy straight up? I'm staying away. For the night game I said I wouldn't put my money on Chris Sims but are the Broncos really going to lose FIVE straight after starting 6-0? This is the NFL folks. The Broncos held a players only meeting and I think they are bound and determined to right the ship. The Giants got their win at home against the Falcons last week after dropping four straight prior to that. They're playing at Mile High and with what I've seen out of the Giants at some points this season it wouldn't shock me to see the Broncos take this one on the field.

Green Bay -11.5
Denver +6

Posted Record: 93-62-4

Tuesday Football

Well last night was a small disaster going 0-2. Vince Young is really just a killer the way he can escape the pocket and pick up first downs. I really thought the Texans would have a little better showing and while they did have a few big plays they just could not put it all together. Anyway tonight is a garbage MAC game but being the degenerate I am I am on the Over 53.5. BOL everyone.


Posted Record: 93-61-4

Monday Night Football

Well at first glance tonight's game definitely looks tough and I am almost inclined to take the Titans getting four. However, after two straight 8-8 seasons the Texans really need this game to get to 6-4, rather than fall to 5-5 against a team they have already beaten in Tennessee. Houston's main concern in this game is Titans RB Chris Johnson who is one of the league's top backs, though the Texans have acquired a new Safety who has really helped shore up the run defense as they are giving up only a shade over 60 yards on the ground on average over the last six games. Sure the Titans have looked good the last few games but against Buffalo, San Fran, and Jacksonville. Add to that the fact that the Texans have an extra week to prepare and I am sold on Houston -4. I also think there will be a lot of scoring tonight so I will also be on the Over 48.5.

Houston -4
Over 48.5

Posted Record: 93-59-4

Sunday Football

Tough day going 2-2 yesterday with Ole Miss coming really close to covering but just not able to get that one final stop. Not a terrible day overall though. Today's games I'm on:

Buffalo +8.5
San Fran +6.5
Atlanta +7
Indy/Baltimore Under 44.5


Posted Record: 89-59-4

Saturday Football

1-2 last night losing Akron and Utah State, but really both games could've covered, tough luck in the Utah State game right before the half being tied at 14 and then going into half down three touchdowns. Let that one get away. But today is my favorite day of the week so let's see if we can win some money today. I am on:

Ohio Pick
UConn +6
Michigan State +3
Ole Miss -4

Posted Record: 87-57-4

Just ran some numbers that I found interesting:

Based on our record the $100 bettor would be up $2430 so far on the season.
Assuming one unit ($100) is 5% of our total bankroll ($2,000 starting bankroll) we have returned over 100% on our investment so far.

Friday Night Football

Tough game last night with Carolina. Delhomme is a capable qb but when he doesn't play well it can be disastrous. Anyway a few games tonight and I will be on:

Akron +10.5
Akron/BG Over 53.5
Utah State +23 (I know betting against Boise is tough but I think Utah St. keeps a game)


Posted Record: 86-55-4

Thursday Night Football

1-1 last night. Really should've stayed away from the Ball State Game; I took Central Mich. the last time they played and that offense can really score. Dan I have a LeFevour can not only toss it around the field but he is very good at scrambling out of bad situations and making plays with his legs (at least against mediocre MAC competition). Anyway a nice win with Buffalo and on to tonight.

I really think the loss of Ronnie Brown is just devastating for Miami. I really like Miami with Brown and rode them several times but now he's done for the season and Carolina is really starting to turn around their season. I think you see the success continue for Carolina continue tonight so I am taking Panthers -3. Best of Luck everyone.

Posted Record: 86-54-4

Wednesday Night Football

Nice hit on MNF with the Ravens minus the points. Tonight we have two MAC conference games and I will be on Buffalo -3.5 and Ball State +14.5. Lock 'em in before the lines change. BOL everyone.


Posted Record: 85-53-4

Monday Night Football

1-1 yesterday to cap off a nice weekend. Too bad the Eagles took so long to get it going and showed no courage at all, playing overly safe and conservative most of the game. As far as the Pats are concerned, I think that is one of the most questionable coaching calls I've ever seen, but I'm glad we got the cover.

Tonight we have two bad options, lay double-digit road chalk on a Monday Night conference game, ..... or back the Cleveland Browns. I just simply refuse to do the latter so...

I'll be on the Ravens -11

Posted Record: 84-53-4

Sunday NFL

Nice day yesterday going 4-2-1, admittedly winning a game we shouldn't have on Cal, pushing a game we probably shouldn't have on Mich. State and getting a late surge from ND to get the cover. Very fortunate if you ask me and I am quite pleased to have finished the day as we did. That said I will tread somewhat lightly today although I do really like these two plays:

Philly Pick
New England +2


Posted Record: 83-52-4

Saturday College Football

Well folks it is my favorite day of the week and I have a card that I like a lot today. Tough loss yesterday with that game just really slowing down in the second half but still having a good week overall. For today I am on:

Michigan State -3
Florida State +5
Baylor +23.5
Notre Dame +7
Mizzou -1.5
Cal -3
Mississippi State +12

Posted Record: 79-50-3

Friday Football

Great night last night sweeping the board. Tonight I know both teams can score so I am on WVU/Cincy Over 55.5. BOL everyone.


Posted Record: 79-49-3

Thursday Football

Hit the over convincingly last night with Central Michigan just not taking there foot off the gas, which was much appreciated. I thought CMU might have an impressive showing last night but am always leary of laying big chalk. Nice full slate of games tonight and I will be on:

Chicago/SF Under 43
Bowling Green -3.5
SFU/Rutgers Under 43.5


Posted Record: 76-49-3

Wednesday Football

Tough one Monday with Denver. Tonight I'm on the Over 63. BOL everyone.


Posted Record: 75-49-3

Monday Night Football

Great weekend going 7-1 and 3-0 on Sunday. Tonight I really like Denver +2.5. I think they are under rated and Pitt is over rated this year.


Posted Record: 75-48-3

Sunday NFL

Good day yesterday going 4-1 and missing LSU by just 1.5 points, and Bama really never should have kicked that field goal as I believe that was an interception late in the game. But anyway on to today.

Cincy +3
Arizona +3
Miami +10.5


Posted Record: 72-48-3

Saturday NCAAF

Good one last night hitting LA Tech and the Over. Would've loved to see LA Tech pull that one out on the field. But anyway on to today's games. I like:

Illinois +7 and Over 54
LSU +7.5
OSU/PSU Under 38.5
UConn +17


Posted Record: 68-47-3

Friday Football

Tough night last night dropping two and pushing on ECU. Tonight I see a lot a points and a little bit closer game than expected. I am going LA Tech +21 and Over 52.


Posted Record: 66-47-3

Thursday Football

Nice hit the other night with BG and the Over. Three games tonight and I have one play for each.

Eastern Mich./Northern Illinois Under 49
Temple -17.5
ECU +13


Posted Record: 66-45-2

Tuesday NCAAF

Just missed the Saints but hit the over so 1-1 last night. Tonight I'm on Bowling Green +3 and Over 56. Started looking at the weekend card yesterday and I must say I really like some of the games on it.


Posted Record: 64-45-2

MNF

Just getting absolutely killed in the NFL right now going 0-3 yesterday. I am generally a contrarian bettor, and since favorites are hitting at a rapid clip this year, it has been a struggle in the NFL. Luckily the overall is still solid hitting at around 58%. Tonight I am rolling with the public with Saints -12 and Over 55.5. Atlanta's secondary is weak and if Romo can throw for 317 on them I'm sure Brees can, and N.O. is a very tough place to play.


Posted Record: 63-44-2

Sunday Football

4-3 yesterday which I'm not really happy or unhappy with. Today I am going to keep it fairly simple and roll with:

Denver +3.5
Giants -1
Green Bay -3


Posted Record: 63-41-2