Thursday Night Football

Another tough loss. Oklahoma dominated that game statistically but Stanford hung tough and gave them a good fight. Rolling with Tennessee tonight +5 as I really think they have a good chance in this game. Kiffin really did a nice job with this team and I think they have a strong showing tonight.



Posted Record: 112-87-6

Thursday Football

OK now I don't think Kentucky was such a bad call but Arizona was just a flat out bad call. They were the far inferior team and I think the true strength of the PAC-10 is starting to show. Today and tomorrow I look to right the ship and I will begin doing that with Oklahoma -10. I got this line at 8 about a week ago but I think there defense will really get it done against Stanford, and without Luck this Stanford team will likely not be the same. I'll be back with more later.

Oklahoma -10


Posted Record: 112-86-6

Wednesday Football

Tough loss on Kentucky.

Tonight I like Arizona +3. Think they just have the better offense and a good enough defense to pull the win here.


Posted Record: 112-85-6

Sunday Update

Nice day hitting both of our NFL picks.

My second bowl pick is Kentucky. Here's the writeup.


Clemson is coming off a very tough loss in the ACC Championship game to Georgia Tech and I think they might impact them in their preparation for this game. Kentucky is a legit SEC program and I think their chances of at least keeping this one a game are very good. Other than Bama and Florida, Kentucky kept it competitive with pretty much everyone this year (including the likes of Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina), and although Clemson has a good offense we saw what happened when a top-tier ACC team played a middle-tier SEC team when Clemson played South Carolina. I can’t say I really expect Kentucky to win the game here, but I’ll take seven all day long.

Pick: Kentucky +7


Posted Record: 112-84-6

Sunday NFL

I guess to be fair I'll count UNC as a push yesterday. It opened at three but was closer to one by game time. I have two picks so far for NFL.

Houston +1.5

Oakland/Cleveland Under 37


I'll be back for tonight's college bowl game and possibly more NFL.


Posted Record: 110-84-6

First Bowl Pick

Rolling with UNC +1. (I got it at 3 when it came out)

I know everyone is really excited about the season that Pitt had and everyone loves Pitt to knock off the Tar Heels. Not so fast I say. UNC matches up well with Pitt as Pitt loves to run the ball with their excellent running back Dion Lewis. However, UNC has a solid front seven and I think they do a good job of containing Lewis. UNC’s quarterback play has been touch and go this season but with the extra time to prepare I believe UNC will establish a plan to limit T.J. Yates’ mistakes. Pitt is coming off two tough losses to West Virginia and a devastating loss to Cincy in the Big East Championship game. I think after that they may have a tough time getting up for this game. A season where they showed great promise and potential ended bitterly and I believe the trend continues and they drop this game to an up-and-coming UNC squad.


Football Record: 110-84-5

Update

Disappointing Sunday/Monday action going 1-3. We have admittedly been struggling lately. However, I expect to hit the Bowl games very hard. Little hickup with the site, so the picks will probably be posted free of charge ultimately. First game goes off December 26th so check back for updates.



Football Record: 110-84-5

Sunday NFL

Three plays for today:

Cincy +7 taking the emotional underdog after the death of teammate Chris Henry.

49er's +7.5 pretty impressive Monday Night let's see if they keep it up and keep it close.

Pitt -2.5 this line makes little to no sense, don't think Pitt drops another one in a row though.

Monday Night: I am rolling with the Redskins +3 as I look for them to pull the upset.

Also, I put together a package of my 12 favorite Bowl Game picks, which we are selling for $25 at www.johnsbets.com All picks come with information and analysis.

Update

Tough one last night with the Jags failing to cover by 1. They definitely kept it close and could have won, though, so I'm not upset with the pick. Be sure to check back Saturday for our Bowl picks.

Football Record: 109-81-5

Thursday Night Football

Tough Sunday. Not much to say. The games can be very unpredictable late in the season so like I said I'm just waiting to go Bowling. Working on the picks and write-ups and should have a nice little package ready soon.

Just have a funny feeling the Jags pull the upset tomorrow night.

Jags +3

Football Record: 109-80-5

Scratch Atlanta

Sorry folks, if you've locked in Atlanta already nothing you can do, but Matty Ice and Mike Turner are both out today. I'd lay off this one if you haven't placed your bet already. I'll include it as far as the record is concerned (it's only fair because I posted it) but don't play it if you can avoid it.

Sunday Football

Well folks we've had a little layoff, not really picking much lately, but I think that is a wise decision with a healthy serving of Bowl games on its way. Three plays for today. Nice and simple, just good (or decent) teams getting too many points.

Denver +7
Cincy +6.5
Atlanta +10


Football Record: 108-78-5

College Hoops Record: 2-2

Friday NCAAB

1-1 in College Hoops so far. Two plays for tonight:

Old Dominion +3.5
Iowa +11

Thursday

Here's my take on tonight's NFL game. It's tough to tell which Pitt team you're going to get this year. Do we get the team that beat the Vikings or lost to the Raiders? With the total all the way down at 33, I'd have to take the points, but as I've said in the past I'm not betting on the Browns, so it's a no play for me. As I said I will be treading lightly until the College Bowls, but I will be back with plays for Sunday.

Football Record: 108-78-5

A couple College Basketball for you folks:

Northeastern +7
Florida +2.5

College Hoops Record: 0-0

No Play for Monday

Well I will say this past weekend was very disappointing. The only positive we can really take away was that all three of our underdog winners from Saturday won straight up, and Warner played so we only went 0-2 and not 0-3. Not happy about it. But I will tell you that I am very excited for Bowl Season. I have several plays in mind already, still waiting for some spreads to come out but I can tell you there is some money to be made when the Bowls roll around. I'll be treading lightly for the next few weeks in the NFL. A few plays here and there, but overall its been a good season so I'm taking my foot just a touch off the gas and coasting into the Bowls. But I'll be back here and there for a game I really like, or maybe just for some commentary. BOL everyone.


Posted Record: 108-78-5

Update

Well Tennessee's late surge was not enough for the cover and Dallas pretty much handed the Giants that game on a silver platter. Can't wait to see what the bowl games are and start planning my bets. Sad to see the college regular season go.


Posted Record: 108-78-5

Sunday Card

Tough day yesterday finishing 3-4. Couple nice underdog winners with Bama, Arizona, and Washington but it's all moot as the other teams came up short and could not get it done. Not the way we wanted to finished the college regular season, but still 34 bowl games to go. Today's card is small and pending one injury report.

Titans +7
Dallas -1
Minny -3.5 (If Warner does not play)

Posted Record: 108-76-5

Update

Well Rutgers Freshman QB made some Freshman mistakes and cost us the cover there. Also wasn't expecting almost 500 yards of total offense from Bama against Florida's D. Very impressive showing. Can't believe I passed on Bama to win it all at 17 to 1 preseason. Just didn't know McElroy would come in and far exceed anything JPW could do. Either way we're 2-2 so far and I don't think we're doing half bad. We'll see how the last three play out and hopefully we come away with a 5-2 or a 4-3 day. Be back later.

Tebow's Eye Black

John 16:33:

"I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world."

Sorry Tim, not looking good for you so far.

The Tim Tebow Drinking Game

Found this online, thought I'd share it.

In honor of Tebow's sheer awesomeness, we give you the Tebow SEC Championship Drinking Game!

* Drink every time Tebow is called "a warrior." Bonus chug if any of your friends sing the first two lines of Scandal's opus "I am a warrior" and change the lyrics to "Tebow is..." Dance, Tebow, you magnificent *******.

* Drink every time Tebow's called "a leader," then salute.

* Drink every time Tebow's called a "special athlete," then yell "Tiiiimmmmmmmmay!"

* Finish your drink if the announcers suggest Tebow should win the Heisman again this year.

* Drink every time Tebow points to the sky. Then realize the only reason the sky hasn't fallen is the strength of his pointing.

* Drink every time Tebow references God. Or himself. Tom-A-to. Tom-ah-to.

* Drink every time he's shown on the sidelines flapping his arms like a bird (or an idiot) to pump up the crowd.

* If (when) Tebow actually takes flight, finish your drink and do a shot.

* Drink every time Tebow's on camera for no reason when the Florida defense is on the field.

* Drink every time Tebow is seen screaming with his helmet off.

* Drink every time they show a "I Heart Tebow" sign in the stands.

* Drink every time you see a Florida fan in jorts. (Small sips on this one. Otherwise it could kill you).

* Shot every time they mention his experience as missionary.

* If they mention him performing circumcisions in the Philippines while he was a missionary - Chug your beer, do a shot of Patron.

Disclaimer: Playing the Tebow drinking game may result in death. So don't do it. Ever. Not even in jest. The content above this disclaimer is a joke, not a suggestion. If you're dumb enough to do it, just pray Tebow is nearby. Only he can save you. Him or a local hospital with a stomach pump.

Saturday Card

No play tomorrow, got my card for Saturday. Tough loss on Oregon as I thought we certainly could have covered that number. But anyway moving on to Saturday I like this card a lot.

Rutgers -1.5 (strictly a situational play here, WVU got the win of their season last weekend, this game wreaks of letdown)
Arizona +7 (line is inflated based on past reputation of both teams)
Alabama +5.5 (think they win on the field)
Alabama/Florida Under 41 (Two best defenses in the country)
Florida International -1.5 (another situational play)
Washington +7 (Cal is without Best, at home, last game of the season in conference)
Clemson Pick (too much speed for GT, revenge game)

Posted Record: 105-72-5

Oregon

Well my picks are posted for tomorrow but I just wanted to explain the Oregon play and why I will be dropping at least a couple units on it. On the surface Oregon State looks like a great bet; a solid team catching 9.5 against one of their biggest rivals. But I actually think Oregon kicks them in the mouth in this one. The Masoli/James combo is a two-headed monster averaging 5.9 and 6.9 yards per carry respectively, and there is talk of Blount playing tomorrow, and frankly if he does (and really even if he doesn't) this Oregon running attack will overwhelm the Beavers. Not to mention the fact that Masoli's passing is much improved and they have a couple good receivers who should help spread the field and open up the running game even more. Jacquizz Rodgers (I call him Queezy) is a good player but he averages less than James AND Masoli at 5.5 ypc. I'm sure the Beavers will generate some offense but I don't see it being anywhere near enough. Oregon won this game 65-38 last year at OSU, and with this game being played in Eugene (a VERY tough place to play) I would expect a similar result. Last year Oregon had some incentive to knock out Oregon State, and that was to prevent them from playing in the Rose Bowl. However, it was only to secure a ticket to the Holiday Bowl. This year Oregon can not only crush State's Rose Bowl hopes once again, but they can win a ticket to the Rose Bowl themselves. I'm sure the added incentive won't hurt. Just too many factors working against Oregon State here and I see this game getting ugly. Oregon in a rout.

Thursday Night Action

So I think a couple nights off was perfectly appropriate after Monday Night's debacle. I like two plays tonight and really like the weekend card so it should be a nice opportunity for us to make some money. My Thursday plays are:

Western Kentucky +5.5
Oregon -9.5 (really like this one)


Posted Record: 104-71-5

Well folks let me start by apologizing for my very poor pick last night. Just about everything I predicted played out almost exactly opposite what I said. Not only did I advise you to take New England, but you probably bet more than you would have had I not advised you to load up. New England's defense was in fact the one that got exposed and the saints did almost drop 40. I have all the respect in the world for Drew Brees; he is a great leader, a hard worker, and a great competitor, and even though no one wants to put him in the same conversation as Brady and Manning he is most certainly there. The guy is deadly accurate. If a perfect QB rating, 5 TD's and 0 ints, and over 300 yards passing on Monday Night on one of their biggest games of the season doesn't do it for you than I don't know what will. The Saints were also banged up at CB and despite some very new faces filling in, they still kept Brady and the Pats well in check. It is obviously easy to be a proverbial Monday morning quarterback, but that game is case and point of why I almost never do a Play of the Year, or even a Play of the Week. And admittedly looking back it was very stupid to make my POY an NFL game, as I have enjoyed much greater success this season in College ball. However, it has been a good season from a learning standpoint as I have some good ideas as to how to increase our NFL percentage for the remainder of this season and into next season, and I don't think I'll be trying a Game of the Year any time soon. This is a marathon and not a sprint and there's no need to try to pick up a whole bunch of units all at once. Just grinding it out betting a unit a game is the way to do it. I know it's been a tough stretch of late but I encourage you to ride out the storm as I have a lot of faith that things will turn around and I can assure you after this weekend I am committed to turning things around. A couple days off is exactly what we need after a game like that, so I will see you folks back here on Thursday.


Posted Record: 104-71-5